"Group Effect" I'm coining for something passive and very subtle but incredibly important. Politically its picked up by Anarchists and all those opposed to property amongst others.
Consider a diamond that has been lost on a beach. The tide is coming in and there is only 2 hours to find it.
There is no way a single person could find the diamond without extraordinary luck so suppose the original owner gives up and abandons the diamond. Word gets out there is a diamond on the beach and a "gold rush" starts with people flooding down to the beach in the hope of getting lucky.
Now while each person is no more likely to get lucky than the original owner, as a group there is now a much greater chance of the diamond being recovered.
Suppose it is found by a person. They celebrate their "luck" and walk off rich.
In the West this is how we see acquisition of resources. You get lucky. I've worked in companies who "got lucky." It is true that the discoverer worked "very hard" to make the discovery but so did hundreds perhaps thousands of others. The more people in the human race who take part in these searches the more likely someone is going to make the magic discovery.
Take fusion power now. The more people who are researching it, the more likely one of them is going to find the winning formula.
Yet because of the way the West sees this, only the discoverer actually gains anything. It's named after them and under Capitalism they get the patent, they get the wealth.
This is not quite true. When Alexander Fleming discovered Penicillin in his small laboratory at St Mary's in Paddington in London (right) he gained the accolades but Mankind gained the wealth of a huge leap forward in the fight against bacteria. Everyone gained.
Yet all the other researchers who went down to the beach to help in the fight against infectious diseases don't get anything. Only the one who found it. This is a misunderstanding.
Another way to see this is in Stock Market predictions. There are tens of thousands of people making stock market predictions. Lets just make them binary predictions of up or down for this example. Completely at random half will get one prediction right. 1/4 will get 2 right. 1 in 1000 will get 10 predictions in a row right. Because of the way that media, networks and all sorts of things work that one person will rise to prominence. Blog entries referring to them will say things like: they predicted the dotcom crash and the CDO crash of 2008 and now they predict some new thing. We think that they must know what they are talking about to have got all that right. But actually it is just "group effect." 10,000 people started making predictions and 1 in 1000 are going to get 10 right quite by chance.
Once that successful person has been selected we can't look back and say they were better than the others. This only works going forward. If I say that Professor A knows what he is talking about, I am saying that going forward he will be right. The fact that he has been right 10 times before doesn't work looking backwards if he started off just one of thousands.
This is also true with companies. We apply for a job at a company and meet the entrepreneur who in all probability thinks they are God's Gift to science and technology or whatever the company does. But like 1 hit wonder in music, they don't see the 1000s who have failed so that they can get where they get by luck. We never apply for jobs to those failures, so by definition employees always work for deluded people like this.
Another classic example is the Monkey's and Typewriters theorem. Suppose the goal is to type the first 1000 characters of the Bible. Obviously the chance that a monkey does this depends upon how many monkeys are in the room. The more that take part the more likely an individual is going to succeed. But when an individual does succeed, looking the other way, they look like a genius. That monkey gets famous for typing the opening of Genesis. Yet it is a meaningless achievement when viewed in the context of a trillion trillion trillion monkeys all typing randomly away.
A quick note from that Wiki page about the Total Library of Borges. This links to SRH. SRH says that a Total Library is impossible because the existence of such a thing would create a whole load of other meta-literature. Then the question of whether a Total Library was possible would generate a load of other meta-literature. And then meta-meta-literature would exist on the meta-literature and you have a Cantor type infinite expansion of the Total Library. It could never complete itself.
So returning to "Group Effect". From the perspective of the one who finds the diamond, or gets all those stock predictions right, or becomes successful in business: their Ego, if the individual has attached to it, might start to think they are some hotshot and get rather confident. Narcissism may take over and start attributing qualities that are not there.
Now it is possible that this is not "group effect." Perhaps they were intelligent in the search for the diamond. They interviewed the person who lost it to find out where they most probably dropped it to pick the best spot to search. They took a fine rake to comb through the sand. Perhaps they actually do understand the markets and can make good predictions. The problem for us faced with just a history and "group effect" is that we can't tell the difference. Are they really better, or are we just faced with the one out of thousands who got lucky?
Science is very particular about "Hypothesis Testing." This is to eliminate "group effect." It's no good "cherry picking" results from experiments to fit your theory after the event. You need to be up front. My hypothesis predicts that changing this one parameter will lead to a distinct result compared to control. This is like "collapsing the wave function." After the collapse we have a distinct event or "choice", we can no longer exist in a probabilistic undecided state. By "choosing a hypothesis" or choosing a diamond hunter or choosing a stock advisor we remove "group effect." We have just one individual now, one path through time and only one future. If this hypothesis or piece of financial advise turns out to be good in the future then it can only be because of our choice of hypothesis or advisor now.
But now it gets deep. We are just one of millions choosing our "future" by making choices. We think we are eliminating "group effect" and being good scientists when we chose our hypothesis before the experimental data is in. Our neighbour in the other lab gets his data first and then, when writing his paper, forms the hypothesis. We see that his hypothesis has not been tested but the journal editors don't know this. And we see that our science is superior and our hypothesis is tested. But it all goes into the network of science and becomes subject to "group effect" anyway. And most deep of all even if all scientists were good and performed proper experiments and hypothesis testing we are still like the diamond hunter who gets lucky in the crowd on the beach. We have only eliminated "group effect" from our individual studies, but we can never escape the fact we are just one of millions of researchers. Indeed it is turning out that nearly all studies in the realm of psychology are not repeatable. Have researchers just got lucky before? Okay I need to think about this bit much more...
Now the real purpose of this blog is the political/economic angle. How do you pay the monkeys or the diamond searchers?
So in the case of the diamond it is a lottery. Everyone has a chance of winning and they are prepared to lose as long as there is the chance to win. But while the chance of the group winning increases with the number of hunters, the individual gain shrinks. You turn up at the beach and no one is there and you are excited because you are the only one who can find the diamond. But you do the maths and realise you are wasting your time you will never find it. Alternatively you turn up and see the beach crawling with people and you see that while it is now going to be found there is little chance it is you who will find it and you turn away. Is it worth doing a math model of this to see whether there is an optimum number of people for a "gold rush" search (TODO)?
It is interesting as Borges points out that time and number are interchangeable. 7 people working on a searching task for a day can do the same work as a single person working for a week. Note not all tasks are like this. Any task where cooperation helps like carrying heavy things has a different type of group effect. 7 people can carry something a single person cannot so the team will be able to achieve things the individual cannot. I'll call this Active Group Effect to distinguish from purely passive probabilistic Group Effect here. In Active Group Effect the sum of the parts is greater than the parts, new qualities emerge from the joining of parts. Buddha would say that all things are actually Active Group Effect as nothing has intrinsic nature, and the nature arises from things coming together (that is "inter-depending" on each other).
But the diamond is more complex because there is a time limit: the sea is coming in. This means that number and time are not interchangeable. If not enough people go and look no one will win. So you turn up and think its pointless: 2 hours to find a diamond, no chance. And the more people who are there the less your chances. You give up, and likely everyone gives up and the diamond is lost. The "gold rush" ends.
So the diamond loser calls the Police and offers a reward for its discovery. Same problem. No one is going to get it. But say an actuary (and note to self this model might be interesting to create when I have time) works out that 1000 people have a 75% chance of finding the diamond in 2 hours. The reward money is £10,000 so the Police offer £5 / hour for people to come search. For a load of kids that is okay pocket money so the search starts and the diamond is found.
Now in this scenario each individual is compensated for the "group effect." While it is true only one kid can get lucky, no kid is going to get lucky if the number of people searching is not big enough.
The problem I am trying to highlight here is how Capitalism does not compensate people for "group effect." All those millions of people who contribute to the search for new things who never get compensated even though they passively took part through "group effect."
This is why in fact all discoveries are really achieved by socialism and government funding. You simply cannot find the diamond on a "gold rush" mentality. People's lives are too short, the tide is coming in, and the individual chance of discovery is negligible. Equally with the market place full of researchers there is a sense that there is no point is trying, other people are already researching everything. What is needed is some form of group compensation for the effort that mankind as a whole puts into the endeavour of Life.
Thinkers like Kropotkin are very strong on this. Human discovery and advancement is not done by individuals but by the human race as a whole. We all benefit from the discovery of fire, and at some point there must have been an individual who made that first flame artificially but they did it as part of a community of thousands trying again and again over tens of thousands of years. It was a collective effort by mankind and mankind was the winner. All those years ago there was no sense of property or compensation. Those individuals who found fire did not conceive of owning it, or probably even discovering it. It just came about like monkeys on typewriters, and they could never have imagined what it was or the huge impact it would have.
A quick note on Anthropic Principle. So this is similar to passive Group Effect but with SRH wrapped in. Looking out on the universe there is a contradiction in supposing that it has properties that undermine the possibility for intelligent life. The fact that intelligent humans are here already says huge things about the universe. Another way to say this is that suppose there were infinite universes then only some of them would have intelligent life that was able to be aware of its existence, and so all those universes that could not support life must also be unknown. By irrefutable necessary definition this universe must be one of the known universes else we would not even be talking about it. And turning all that around any universe where inhabitants can formulate the Anthropic Principle must be suitable for intelligent life. So this is like the Monkeys not typing works of literature but instead creating universes perhaps by pressing buttons on Cyclotrons to perform as yet not understood quantum operations that cause big bangs in new dimensions separate from our own. Some of those monkeys will create universes with the conditions for intelligent life and so create individuals wondering how they came to exist but like the selfish Diamond Finder not acknowledging how their diamond of intelligent life really depends upon all the failed Monkey experiments where nothing occurred. So in fact Anthropic Principle does ignore "Group Effect" and the possibility that our "specialness" in this universe is linked and offset by all the universes where nothing happened, but without which we would not have happened.
Ego, Nature and True Self
And that links to the whole concept of Ego and Nature. As blogged recently the self does not exist. At which point we tend to panic because we think if I do not exist then the world is just an empty dream, like a movie and it will be switched off and the great darkness and void will take over. Or we think if I don't exit then what is the point of life, I am already dead. And we have a load of chaotic panicky thoughts and we probably give up thinking about it. But its a serious point and we need to separate the baby from the bath water.
Realising we do not exist actually does not effect things in the way we think and fear. It just means distinguishing the book of "me" from the cover. As a child I used to think books looked really exciting cos of their arty covers especially all the thrillers and things. But then you open them and its just boring black words on white paper and no pictures. This is a bit like how we look at ourselves. We like the colourful cover. This has our name on it, our family ties and who our family is, the things we have done, the memories, the things people say about us, our qualifications and achievements, our salaries, our marital status, how many children we have, and it probably included the tragedies that have befallen us which we also identify ourselves with. It is all things we can tell people about and when asked about ourselves we can say to prove we are someone and distinguish ourselves from other people.
But when you open the book its not like that at all. All this stuff is just trivial. What we really are is what is happening right "Now." It is completely different from the cover. We are the fount from which our future is springing. A common example. We think that we are a mature and reasonable person. But then that person cuts us up in the queue to the supermarket and we lose it and get angry with them. This is not the self we tell other people about, its not a self we like and we may not even recognise. We are adults we just hide it and fake some polite indifference (I am British this is how culture works here), but that side of us is there. That is the real self. Being angry is real. Faking we are not angry is just the cover.
Now we obviously don't want to become an angry person, no one is saying that. Being an angry person is going to make life hard. Fuelling that anger will make us hostile to people and negative and it will colour our outlook on life and start making us make decisions hurtful to our self and others. Perhaps I will shout at that person in the supermarket and fight for my place in the queue but really for what gain? Just 1 place in the queue and a bit of pride. But also a lot of hostility and who knows where it will go. So we do acknowledge this side of us, and we sit with it and we understand it and get to move forward with it. But that is quite different from just ignoring it and faking it cos we think we are superior to anger and the book cover doesn't have anything out it on. And importantly it is different from going the other extreme and labelling ourselves as an angry person. Basically any time we label ourselves and place a cover on the book : that is the self that does not exist. I never read Kierkegaard say this but its possible he said, "Once you label me you negate me" (he was opposed to formal statements and truth) and it would mean this: that a label is no more or less than a grave stone, something to stand next to a dead corpse meanwhile the self is living and quite of opposite of dead stone and labels. Anything that can be written on our grave stone is obviously nothing to do with us. If it can be said about a dead person then its obviously got nothing to do with being alive. And Buddha puts is more succinctly by saying "Everything is Not Self." So when we say that the self does not exist we mean that the dead labels of our "self" are really dead and do not exist.
So we struggle and say well I do exist, look I just thought something: who did that? its not your thought its my thought, see how could it happen without me? (see Descartes "I think therefore I am"). And there is some truth to this. Indeed you had a thought, and indeed I don't know what that thought is until you tell me: all this is correct. And indeed that brain of yours it generated that thought for you to see, and me having a different brain has different thoughts. All this is correct. But why put a grave stone next to all that? Why kill it by thinking "me"? Why not just let it all happen in a smooth flow of time without interrupting it with things coming from a self and going into a self like a beehive with things flying in and out. I say something to you it goes into the hive and thoughts come out like some mysterious oracle. And then you have the problem of where that beehive is: is it brain or somewhere else. And then the problem of freedom of choice and whether the beehive works deterministically by the laws of science or whether the bees just fly out from nowhere completely free. Why have a beehive with my name written across it? Why not just have the things as they are? So all those things on the cover of this book: my name, and memories and achievements all this can go in the trash bin. All this "I" is not me. If its anything it is someone else.
So that links to the "group effect" because what is it that distinguishes me from the events of the world and makes me feel like a spaceship navigating through a world of events? It is just the belief and attachment to certain things that I think are "mine." Rather than just having thought, I must believe they are mine. This is just like the diamond finder who doesn't see the group effort of thousands of diamond hunters on the beach and takes all the glory of themselves: they "own" the discovery all to themselves. This is exactly the problem of Ego. The False Self divides everything that happens into Mine and Not-Mine. So when they are successful or a failure it is all theirs. Its like runners in a race. There can be only one winner, but one person does not make a race. There must be other runners to set up the conditions for winning at all. The winner must recognise the invaluable part played by those who raced them to make it possible for them to win. Being the "best in the world" only matters if your competitors have seriously tried to win themselves. If you train for months and then win the parent's race at school the winning is not so valuable because everyone else just turned up and never made a very serious race.
The way that Capitalism and modern society only see the self and the individual in this modern Cult of Self is undoubtedly the worst development in human history and promises a very bleak future for the human race. We are seeing the emergence of the first True Dark Age.
[Pushing the boundaries of my understanding here but many ideas more clearly defined than before]