Tuesday, 22 March 2011

Earth Quake Frequency



After the Asian tsunami in 2003 had a quick look at sun-earth relationship with regards to quakes as this one happened near the solstice. There is no obvious correlation.

However getting a bit more into it after the Tohoku Earthquake I just looked at the angle between the Sun and Moon.

The chance of a quake almost doubles when the Sun-Moon angle is 70 degrees.

This is a number I am rather familiar with after all the Phi stuff earlier in the year. It is 1/5th a circle and the angle of a pentagon whose inner pentagram has sides of ratio of Phi.

The data in the graphs is upto 2003. Checking the angle of Sun and Moon on the fateful Friday it was 73 degrees!

What does come out of the brief look today is that there is no correlation between the longitude of quakes on the earth surface and the position of either sun or moon (not looked at together). There is also no correlation with distance so the recent Super-Moon is a coincidence.

Discovered that the Sun's gravity accounts for 44% of the tidal energy and the Moon 56%. The moon creates a 30cm Lithosphere bulge by itself so as it passes over, the ground rises 1/3 metre! Sun and moon combined not sure how to work it out. Is its simply 79% more i.e. a 54cm bulge - probably not linear but that is a heck of a massaging of plates!

There is certainly much to know (this is just a day spent finding code to do the planet predictions) enormous thanks to Keith for the functions:

'Astro-functions
'Keith@xylem.demon.co.uk
'http://www.xylem.demon.co.uk/kepler/
'http://www.stargazing.net/kepler/astrovba2.html

I do wonder why the scientific community always say they know nothing in this field:~ Weather forecasters have a much more complex job and at least they try.

===


Actually if there is a grouping, it suggests more Earth Quakes at closest approach to sun (late Dec-early Jan at moment) + when the Moon is farthest away. The graph on left shows frequency of major earthquakes against distance of Sun (the peak would be much more obvious if the x-axis was wrapped around and started in mid scale!). The graph on right shows distance of moon on x-axis (I don't get the units of this function) and distance of Sun (again relative to mean distance = 1). There is a clear increase in frequency as the moon moves away from the Earth! Combined with the Sun this means that mid-winter and distant moon make the most likely combination for an Earthquake, combined with a Sun-Moon angle of 70 degrees which is a 1/3 Full/Empty moon.

Looking Moon phase during Earth-quakes here's an odd coincidence: when the angle (from Earth) between Moon and Sun is 70degs (peak Earthquake angle), the angle (from Moon) between Sun and Earth is 109.86 degrees. The Moon phase is then 0.33 (1/3 illuminated or 1/3 dark) using the equation: phase = (1 + Cos(angle))/2. Now the coincidence is that 0 (full moon) & 109.47 (1/3 moon) are the only two angles where the size of the projection of the Earth vector into the Sun vector (from the Moon) is the same ratio as the Phase of the Moon! ie. |Cos(angle)| = (1 + Cos(angle))/2. What significance who knows.

This is to say that the projection of the Moon-Earth Vector (e) in the Moon-Sun vector (s)

as a proportion of (e) is the same ratio as the moon phase when t=0 (fullmoon) or t=189.47 (1/3 moon) and this corresponds to a moon-sun angle from Earth of about 70 degress which statistically is by far the most likely time for earthquakes.

What possible reason?

1 comment:

Alva said...

I looked at a larger data set which showed no patterns at all and so conclude that the patterns above are simply the result of randomness.

Mathematical models I created--no matter how complex--don't suggest any arrangement of sun-moon-earth other than in a straight line matters. This is not born out in the data however.

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