The gambler and the philosopher are not wise.

Probably a stub from a note I found. This follows up some posts a while ago on probability, and the probability of actual events.

If we are flipping coins what is the probability we get 3 Heads in a row. It is 1/2*1/2*1/2 = 1/8

Of the 8 possibilities only one is HHH.

Simple.

Now suppose we throw 3 heads. Then we ask what is the probability?

Well we have 2 answers now:

(1) Answer one is asking the question before the throw the 3, which is 1/8.
(2) But if we mean what is the chance of having throwing 3 Heads now the answer is 1 because we have just done that.

A concrete result is probability 100%. This is reminiscent of Wave Collapse in Quantum Physics. Up until the point of "observation" things exist in an uncertain state {H/T} that is the coin can be either H or T. But after "observation" then it becomes concrete. It is odd that this common sense law of the universe, is considered "quantum" when we are all familiar with it in our every day lives.

This is the excitement of gambling: before the roulette wheel is spun there is a 18/38 probability you will get Red. If we believe it is an unbiased wheel and we place £1000 on Red, then we are in a uncertain state all of a sudden. We are 47.3% the winner of £1000 and we are 52.6% the loser of £1000. For many feeling for a short while the 47.3% winner of £1000 is very exciting. It is the closest they will come to riches in their life (if that is what they want).

But the thing to note here is the fundamental difference between the "superposition" of uncertainty of being 47.3% winner and the concrete reality of being an actual winner with 100%.

Now all this is possible because of the Mind. I used to joke with a friend that he owed me £1 for not having thrown his pencil case on the floor. Basic protection racket. Then he would upgrade it to £100 for not having hit me. Then £1000,000 for not having killed him. All money out of no where, just valuing possibilities that had not happened, and we were just purely inventing with our minds. This is the trick of Capitalism and Insurance. People can make you think about things that don't yet exist and get you to pay for them.

This is the power of the mind!

But apart from getting us to part with money we don't need to (probably) it has a deeper problem.

As we approach Enlightenment we begin to look at the world "as it is" and we start to separate it from the "thoughts" we have about it.

"As it is" is the 100% reality, when it dawns on us we won or lost. "as we think it is" are all the probabilities of what might happen. In gambling the options are carefully limited so our minds think they know the future. Of course we may have a heart attack before we get the winnings so "winning" is not as certain as we "think." Reality and Think are at odds. This is Rupa and Nama in Indian languages: Form and Name. How it appears and what we think about it. Very important difference.

When we start to look at Rupa closely we start to see the inadequacy of Nama. Wittgenstein comments on how the name "red" is so utterly disconnected from the actual experience of Red. They have nothing in common and we can't even begin to place how they are connected. Hence his theory of "Language Games" where rules of play govern words and instruct us how we use them IN our lives. Words are things embedded alongside the things we play with. But however we look at it, the world of Rupa, the forms and the "real" things is quite distinct from the world we think. Rupa is the world where everything is 100%, it is certain, it is there, it is real and is happening (to indicate that what "has" happened is actually Nama as we have given it a name and are thinking it since it is gone into the Past already).

But as we start to feel that the wold is unfamiliar authentically we can trip into an inauthentic version of this where we start to question things philosophically.

We start to ask questions like "how weird is it that we all have mothers." When you think about it, its the weirdest thing in the world that we are all born! The more you think about it the more odd and absurd it seems and the more you begin to feel it is unfamiliar and the more you think you actually know nothing about life at all. All very Joni Mitchell talking about clouds.

But note we are in the world of Nama now. The world of possibilities and probability. We are examining what we know of the world. We can start to fantasise and imagine what if we were not born, what if we started very small and grew. Or other crazy ideas like we have always existed and took a physical form. People have some difficulty dealing with death so we have souls, but if we have souls then we were never born either. We have no Rupa for any of this, this is all Nama and us thinking about the world.

There is a particular mind set where we refuse reality all together. Everything becomes a point of theory and every event becomes a data point to think about. But we do not value "reality" anymore. This essentially is Plato. The world of "Forms" existing in some general abstract world replaces reality.

But this is odd. We noted at the start the the world of "thought" is a world of "possibilities." When the roulette wheel turns we are not the winner yet. We are only thinking about being the winner. Yet Plato seems to think that the Winner exists in some perfect world already. Well he thinks the Loser exists up there too. Whether we become the Winner of the Loser is just an arbitrary irrelevant fact. In both cases we become just the window through which the perfect world of forms shines.

Everything above has been turned on its head.

Well lets just close this down now without justification. If there is one form of interest in Plato's world it is that he is Wrong. Altho proof is rather easy. Is there a Form for the World of Form itself?

It is very dangerous to start giving thoughts any reality beyond themselves. Before the Roulette wheel has stopping spinning we are absolutely neither a winner of a loser and any emotions and experienced we have about that uncertainty are based purely upon unreal thoughts.

Likewise when we philosophise about the world, and start to examine all the possibilities and start to see the world as it is, as rather odd and weird and unfamiliar this can quickly become dangerous as we start to replace the reality of the world with questions and fantasies.

However this should not close down the one very valuable experience which is seeing that our thoughts about the world really don't fit, Joni Mitchell style or even Suzanne Vega "Language" style. Seeing our thoughts as inadequate and realising that the world we thought we knew we actually don't know is an essential experience is separating Names and Forms and brings us very close to truth and enlightenment. But to reiterate this is different from the philosopher looking at all the possibilities like  a gambler and wondering why we ended up in this odd world, and what world we could be in like a winning world. This world we have is 100% probable and that completely separates it from all the thoughts we may wonder and dream about.